Elections 2010: Social Media and Election Monitoring

The early report from Uchaguzi dot or dot tz* is hot off the press. Here is a quick glimpse at the accumulated efforts of citizen monitoring using the Ushahidi platform:

Looks like Dar is the hottest spot, but the other urbanities have really represented.

Check out the number of people who had a perfectly pleasant voting experience. Check out the number of Tanzanians who couldn't find their names on the voter roll. James Mbatia of NCCR-Mageuz0- who didn't get to vote- has some company.

In 2005, there was no Twitter. There was no 3G mobile phone network. The Tanzanian blogosphere was in it's infancy, and Ufisadi wasn't a household term yet. Look how far we've come. While every day is a good day to be Tanzanian, some days are admittedly better than others :)

If you want to keep track of events in realtime, may I recommend: TBC, ITV, Capital, StarTV, RadioOne, Idhaa ya Kiswahili (Deutsche Welle, the Beeb, VOA and Radio France International) and on the net: JamiiForums (with your grain of salt), Wanazuoni, Twitter hashtag Tanzania and the NEC website. Sorry I haven't linked those outlets, my net is slow so just use your noodle and try google.

Tools on the Right, and a Party

Okay, I've put up links to the two social media online election monitoring sites on the right hand side of the blog at the top. Let's see if this social media test run can set us up for the big 2015. If any other good interactive election monitoring tools are up and running let me know and I'll put up the link.

And in other news, the Punch Hunger campaign team are having an event today. From the press release:

To make food a right and first priority in Tanzania, the FOOD right FIGHTERS from the international Activista network are inviting all Tanzanians to join the Punch Hunger campaign and call attention to this

very important message to the government:

Stop allocating land for biofuel production without a policy that ensures food security and that is implimented.

Venue/ Mahali: Tanzania Scouts Association

Time/ Muda: 2-6 pm/ 8-12pm

Major Events:

• Performances by artists like Hardmad, Malfred, Eriakim, Rage etc.
• Competitions in games, dance and music
• Exhibitions from different NGO’s
• The FOOD right FIGHTERS launch their new song “Punch Hunger” produced together with FIDQ

It's your country. Vote like you own it. Happy Furahi Day.

Not Like Sheikh Yahya

Our resident celebrity "master" of the predictive arts, Sheikh Yahya Hussein, has a habit of forseeing political performance long after the election results have been announced. He also likes to plays it safe by stating the obvious.

Why let him have all the fun? Since we have a month to go, this is a good time to read some tea leaves of my own:

1. Jakaya Kikwete is going to be re-elected as President. Tanzania always re-elects the incumbent. Besides, there is no viable candidate for the Union Presidency outside of the CCM yet. This won't be the case in 2015 and 2020 if our opposition keeps maturing (which is hardly guaranteed by the looks of it).

2. Jay Kay is going to win with maybe 60-65% of the vote. Of course CCM knows it can't reproduce it's ridiculous 80% win from 2005 even though it has plastered Jay Kay all over anything that sits still long enough. There is nothing like staring at an incumbent's feet of clay for five years straight to kill off any romance.

3. Which means that Dr. Slaa (Chadema) will come second with maybe 10-15% of the vote, and the other stragglers will split whatever is left over.

4. Maalim Seif (CUF) is the next President of Zanzibar, unless something dramatic happens between now and October 31st.

5. Opposition is going to increase its presence in parliament significantly- it may even work it's way up to 25-30% of the Bunge if voters wield that pen right.

6. These elections and the next five years will really test CCM's powers of cohesion. CCJ might have been an aborted exercise, but I predict that the first real splinter group is likely to appear before 2015.

7. Without a doubt there will be, um, 'discrepancies' in the poll numbers as they come in. But thanks to our friends in the IT industry and the nascent movement of independent citizen oversight and reporting, rigging this vote is going to be tougher than usual. This is good: some jobs are just too important to leave to a state organ like the National Electoral Commission. No chads will be left hanging...

Overall, October 31st is going to be about consolidating the inroads made by the opposition, considering policy and ideology along with political personalities, and opening up Tanzania's democratic spaces: local government, parliament, media- especially social media.

Speaking of social media, Uchaguzi2010 is working as an online aggregator of online election coverage. The blog lacks an 'about us' section, which I find problematic, but the content is all referenced. The best part is the GoogleDocs candidate list, which should become very interesting as of October 31st 6:00 pm onwards. The Revolution is being broadcast: tune in, think, connect, vote, report.