The King's Diary: A New Year

A month ago I posted a link to The Choice by Neema Kwamamlaka, a great tongue-in-cheek story about contemporary Tanzanian politics at the very top level. Then Neema came up with a suggestion: how about if she showed us the King's Diary entries every so often? Brilliant. Would I care to host them on the blog? Um. Does a fat man belch?

TMR is happy to introduce to you The King's Diary. This will be a regular feature (time permitting) of the blog, a column in which His Most Excellently Handsome Highness the unnamed King will let us read his intimate thoughts on the trials and tribulations of governing a poor but pretty country somewhere on the East Coast of Africa. I think that he might even be persuaded to answer a question or two from his loyal subjects in the comments section.

The King’s Diaries by Neema Kwamamlaka

Dear Me,

Now that my new year’s resolution is to act more strategically, I have decided to keep a diary. By putting my thoughts to paper, I may be able to think clearer about what my options are.

What a mess I have landed in. Sure, The King’s Party won the elections hands down. This was expected. But what an operation to clean up now that the campaigns are over: promises made to supporters need to be honoured and the opposition party believes it stands a chance to win the next election. On top of that there are demands for a new constitution. I need to manoeuvre carefully if I want to remain where I am now.

Before I strategize on how to deal with the post-election rigmarole, let’s start with a list of what I want to achieve this year:

1. 1. Stay in power
2. 2. Become richer
3. 3. Become an historical figure, admired by its people.

That was easy. I believe that is about it. Now to work!

Obviously the TKP will need to honour promises made in exchange for votes and money during the election campaign. Shop owners need to get something in return for their support to our candidates. But I doubt whether it is wise to oust hawkers from the Empire of the East. Yes they operate illegally. Most do. And of course, they don’t vote, so they are a sitting duck. In fact they are a better target than the ambulant traders who we kicked around after the last election. That cost the TKP a lot of goodwill. Better not to repeat that.

But traders from the Empire of the East have a powerful ally in their government. I do not want to upset our relations just when we are getting along so well. There must be other ways to reward the shop keepers. What, for instance, if the city’s’ infrastructure is improved by building some flyovers? At present the city seems perpetually stuck in a traffic jam. I should be able to sell this idea to the shop owners and create opportunities to make money on the side at the same time! Moreover, if I tell the city authorities to initially put more pressure on the traders and to almost make their business impossible, maybe I could come to their rescue by agreeing with the Empire of the East to make an end to the harassment of their traders in exchange for the flyovers! Sounds like a plan.

Hurray for myself.

20 January 2011

Anticipation.

Please excuse me: it's been a long time and I am going to expend a lot of hot air in this post. If you want a quick read, the next post is going to be short and sweet.

It's that time of year again. Resolutions are a-knocking. I gave up on detailed resolutions a long time ago since obsessing about my failure to stick to a plan would derail any actual progress made in the resolution area. Besides which, resolutions are a bit like coasters- you only bring them out when there's company in order to appear more "together" than you really are. So these days I give inconclusive answers, sort of meander towards a vague goal or two and hope for the best.

That approach is also a good way to describe Tanzanian governance at present. Inconclusive answers (so, who actually stole the money?), sort of meandering (lack of focus and commitment) towards a vague goal or two (grand ideas "vanquishing poverty", no tangible targets) and hope for the best (because ultimately, accountability is just a four-letter word). Maybe we only bring out development policy to appear more "together" on the world stage than we really are. Heh.

I have been media-fasting since sometime after the elections, and trying to get a more intuitive and experience-driven 'feel' for what this second term of Jay Kay's is going to bring. Well. Remember the power shortage issues The Establishment said it would fix by its' next term? The kind of laissez-faire attitude that led to the Richmond/Dowans shenanigans? Five years down the line and we're back on power rationing through a very hot December. The Cabinet continues to grow at an impressive rate, if not the economy. And The Establishment is using up it's 2010 supply of teargas as it practices oppressive maneuvers against the citizenry. By the way, I hear practice makes perfect. Mwananchi: watch out for an FFU near you lest you want to learn how to leg it from the authorities every time you dare to express a democratic opinion.

I admit, I don't hold out much hope for the second term of Jay Kay's presidency. So far all the signs suggest it's going to be more of the same. I am beginning to suspect that there might not, after all, be any hidden depths to my President's character*. No lurking resolve, no secret masterplan, no overarching vision. And if that's the case, I guess he's just one of our transitional incumbents (we like to flip between active presidents and passive presidents, apparently). More worrying than Jay Kay's excessive need to be liked is the simmering threat of vindictiveness that's coming off the ruling party like a bad stink.

More than one apparatchik has been overheard saying things they really, really shouldn't. Like, constituencies such as mine which voted in an opposition candidate are going to feel the negative effects of that decision. Yeah, CCM: that's one way to endear yourself to a hostile votership. Or that Tanzanians are generally too stupid to know what's good for us because if we did we would vote CCM forever. If you hate fellow Tanzanians, what are you doing in politics? My favorite? That Tanzanians' failure to vote in CCM the way they wanted to be voted in is a sign of ingratitude. Ah, now there's the Party we're familiar with: ever gracious in defeat, the cream of Tanzanian society.

Anywho. The exciting part is that in this coming Term Two of Administration Number Four a number of meaty issues are going to show up in Bunge. The Freedom of Information Bill will likely be snuck in through the back door at some point because The Establishment would like for us not to know what's up (transparency sucks), and the Opposition and Civil Society and the media would like more access. A battle shall ensue.

Second: our Newspaper Act dates back to 1977. A fine year for democracy, that... not! Going to be keeping an eye out for the Media Bill that's sure to show up soon. Also troubling signs in this area: the government is going to try to restrict our constitutionally enshrined right to express ourselves publicly (accountability sucks), the Media Council of Tanzania, Tanzania Media Women's Alliance and various other CSOs are going to kick up a fuss, it's going to be interesting.

And last but not least: the Independent Candidate Issue. Chief Justice Ramadhani is no longer on the bench, there's a new sheriff in town. The last "ruling" on the government's appeal against the Supreme Court's previous ruling that... Whatever. Basically the Judiciary folded like a house of cards in a tropical thunderstorm on that issue and reminded us that the executive branch of government is still the only game in town. Next five years, hard to tell. Who knows if Independent Candidates are going to be allowed? Which leaves me wandering the wilderness, spending another year in search of a political party that is not embarrassing to belong to, supporting the tenacious Reverend Mtikila on his quest for legal activism.

The good news is that Zanzibar promises to be a very interesting case study on "shared" power in the region. I wish them the very best, and from the outside anyways it looks like the ingredients for success are there. We'll see, won't we?

*Fine, go ahead and say "I told you so." You know who you are.

Yes!

When we lost Amina Chifupa, the young female voice in parliament was dealt a severe blow. I wasn't sure that we would recover. I thought we'd be stuck in silence in that ghetto called Viti Maalum. Especially since Jay Kay was ill-advisedly suggesting even more special seats for women as a way to increase our political clout!

But I did notice that Amina hadn't been entirely alone: there was a quiet young woman in nerd chic glasses sitting somewhere behind Rashid Hamad Mohamed (CUF-Wawi). He tends to push up the bar and many parliamentarians sound remedial if they speak within half an hour of a contribution by the leader of the opposition. This first-time Special Seats MP did not suffer that problem as she earnestly clutched her written speeches with trembling fingers and powered through her stage fright.

I have yet to see her screaming like Anna Kilango Malecela of the overwhelmingly dramatic soliloquies. I'm conservative like that, I like my leaders to handle themselves when they are in their formal role.

I was very, very happy when she announced her Kawe candidacy (Christmas came early this year). Although it was a risk to endorse her on the blog* she came through like a champion. And now I get to have Halima Mdee as my very own shiny, brand-spanking newly elected, self-made-woman, kick-ass MP. I know it is a bad idea to fall for a politician, but The Gut tells me that this one might just be the one of the good eggs in the tray.

*The last time I totally bought into a young politician, he pitched a wobbly in his mid-term and I haven't been able to figure out his behavior since. Once bitten, twice shy.

Point One Percent.

Had to post this on FaceBook last night when the results came out since Blogspot started acting funny precisely around the time that the Zanzibar Presidential Election results were being broadcast.

Now that the elections are over and I don't have to play my cards close to my chest, I'll just come out and say it: I am crushed that Maalim Seif did not win. It's nothing personal, like most folks I think that Shein is a gentleman of the old-school variety which is an excellent thing to be. But nonetheless, I'm crushed.

Also, I'm overwhelmed with a bitter-sweet joy at Hamad and Shein's handling of the situation. Zanzibar is a particularly machiavellan part of Tanzania, and we're plenty squirelly to begin with. This might be a sweetheart deal amongst Zanzibari politicians, who knows? But if it isn't, and Maalim gave that concession speech in order to preserve the lives of his countrymen and the peace, stability (and economic viability) of his beloved Zanzibar... well, in that case I must salute him with a deep and genuine respect. That's what it means to sacrifice for your country, all too often.

Heshima kwako, Maalim. Wanazenji, nawatakia heri na amani. Mnatufundisha.

Two Roads Diverged in a Yellow Wood

And sorry I could not travel both

And be one traveller, long I stood

And looked down one as far as I could

To where it bent in the undergrowth.

There is a reason this poem is a classic. Decisions can be complex things. You'll notice that the banner has changed to a walk in the woods. That is the path that leads into the mangrove forests of Jozani Forest Reserve in Zanzibar. It's one of my favorite shots: a visual metaphor for Frost's poem and yet another reminder of how stunning this country is.

I cannot help it that mangroves are green anymore than I can help it if a reader decides to take that as a mark of political allegiance. But the madness has got to stop, people, CCM does not have a monopoly on the color green or the color gold. Hasn't anyone else noticed that Green/Gold is a terribly difficult wardrobe color-scheme for people with melanin?

The picture is also a visual metaphor for the coming months, both personally and in terms of Tanzania's political future. Do you know what is around the corner? Because I don't. I only have hope, optimism and the faith that we're the African Renaissance waiting to happen. It could go either way, but I'm ready.

Mpaka Kieleweke!

I had to crack up when I heard a BBC Idhaa ya Kiswahili reporter say that from Arusha. Reporters have really had a field day with this election. Between them and us voters, I don't know if The Establishment has suffered this much scrutiny in it's long history. Transparency is tough on the state :)

But the situation is a little bit touchy. Looks like we're anxious. Lots of us are young voters too, first time at the ballot, keen to make sure that our favorites are not robbed of their victories.

Tensions in Zanzibar, in Mwanza, Ubungo, Arusha, Dodoma... all revolving around the National Electoral Commission's laggardly pace with the results. While it makes some sense to keep quiet until they are "certain" of their results, this is not a time for reticence!

Elections 2010: Social Media and Election Monitoring

The early report from Uchaguzi dot or dot tz* is hot off the press. Here is a quick glimpse at the accumulated efforts of citizen monitoring using the Ushahidi platform:

Looks like Dar is the hottest spot, but the other urbanities have really represented.

Check out the number of people who had a perfectly pleasant voting experience. Check out the number of Tanzanians who couldn't find their names on the voter roll. James Mbatia of NCCR-Mageuz0- who didn't get to vote- has some company.

In 2005, there was no Twitter. There was no 3G mobile phone network. The Tanzanian blogosphere was in it's infancy, and Ufisadi wasn't a household term yet. Look how far we've come. While every day is a good day to be Tanzanian, some days are admittedly better than others :)

If you want to keep track of events in realtime, may I recommend: TBC, ITV, Capital, StarTV, RadioOne, Idhaa ya Kiswahili (Deutsche Welle, the Beeb, VOA and Radio France International) and on the net: JamiiForums (with your grain of salt), Wanazuoni, Twitter hashtag Tanzania and the NEC website. Sorry I haven't linked those outlets, my net is slow so just use your noodle and try google.

Cup of Tea and a Biscuit.

Okay, the polls are closed. Footage is starting to loop on the TV stations and the anchors are having a tough time keeping the conversation going while the votes get counted. Perfect time to sit down with a cup of tea, turn on Idhaa ya Kiswahili and read a bodice-ripper while waiting for the results. I figure nothing concrete will come together before 8 pm at the earliest.

Chadema is going to take the urbanities, CUF is taking Zanzibar. Rural Tanzania is, as always, going to be the recourse of CCM. And my main man Jay Kay (whose valet is evidently on holiday) might be relieved to be done with the campaign but tomorrow isn't going to be as much fun as 2005 was.

At Last.

Inked.

My voting companions. Young Tanzania hiyo :)

Independent media. These guys, I like. Tee Bee Cee was there too.

Mikocheni at the polls.

"Elsie, wake up! It's time to vote!" yelled La Dee outside my window as she absconded with the trusty Suzuki.

Fifteen minutes to walk to Ushindi Primary, ask the guy in front of me where to find the voters' roll, take a few pictures, get back in line, vote, get inked, take a few more pictures, and walk home. In my line were four promising young men, bristling with youth and vitality and joie de vivre, the Tanzania that every demographic blurb highlights. And now 'tis time for the celebratory election day champagne breakfast.

It's your country. Vote like you own it.

Fair Weather Friendship

Obama's been experiencing a little "pushback"from his client base lately. Apparently he has failed to personally pull manna from the heavens and deliver upon the impossibly high expectations that he encouraged as a candidate. To every household, with his own two Presidential hands. Heh. In a similar vein, our man Jay Kay is experiencing a little push-back from the wenyenchi. Of course, how a leader handles adversity is a wonderful demonstration of their character. Obama's an intellectual introvert and frankly doesn't need any external approval to keep his shit together. Also, he's got Michelle. Jay Kay on the other hand is struggling a little. Our President is a charismatic extrovert who has been behaving like he's lost his mojo. Term one must have been quite the education. Heh.

I know perfectly well that it is the fashion this year to focus on Jay Kay's many failings. That's just a hazard of the job: to be President means accepting the self-inflicted burden of unrealistic expectations and incessant criticism. And there is absolutely no doubting that Jay Kay has let us down by not living up to his promise of leadership.

If I had any reason to believe that Dr. Slaa would be an effective President, I would vote him in without a shred of pity for my man Jay Kay. The good doctor is intelligent, canny, brave and- most shocking in a politician- conscientious. But he's also the most effective opposition we've ever seen and without him I fear that our Bunge is going to lose its way again. There are so few good people in power, it's a damn shame to lose even one brilliant parliamentarian.

Also, let us not be disingenuous about this: The Establishment is not going to let Dr. Slaa be the President we are all hoping for. The Establishment is no joke, people. If it exhausted all good will out of the fantastically stubborn (if irascible) Benjamin Mkapa, do you honestly think it will fail to drive the good doctor clinically insane within a year? And that's the best-case scenario I can come up with. There are considerable structural and cultural impediments to "regime change" at the moment, the biggest of which is a hysterical and idiotic press that renders our political discussions in the most superficial terms. Dr. Slaa is the man we need in 2015. Opposition: get busy folks, there's a lot to do in the next five years if you're going to offer change we can believe in.

In the meantime, I have to think seriously about what to do tomorrow. I want to support Jay Kay because if there's one thing I know we can take to the bank it's his complete devotion to Tanzanians. Man loves this country and her people more than he loves his wealth and welfare*. It's a small distinction, but if you have any doubts about how important this small distinction is may I draw your attention to the post-independence history of any one of the eight countries bordering Tanzania. Please meditate upon their leadership experience at your leisure.

There is also the issue of integrity. Modern democracy has taken on some of the characteristics of consumer culture: if it doesn't make you happier/sexier/increase your income/fix your insecurities as soon as you take it home, take it back to the store and bitch at the manufacturer. As a snob, I find that behavior shockingly uncouth to say the least. We're picking a flesh and blood person, complete with design flaws, to become Public Servant Number One. Voting is not like buying a car and it shouldn't be about acquiring a Big Daddy. To get Catholic on you, voting is the sacrament and the mystery of democratic faith. We need to give this some mature consideration, for (expletive deleted)'s sake.

All of which is to say I'm sitting on a rock looking at a hard place. Do I vote in Jay Kay in the hopes that he'll grow into the President we all thought he would be in term two? Do I vote Jay Kay because I'm a stick-in-the-mud who utterly despises fair-weather friendship? Will he find his mojo again in time to handle 2015's CCM melt-down or is he an adorable but lost cause? Is Dr. Slaa a harbinger of things to come, or is this the real, crucial moment? Does one vote even matter at the end of the day?

...yes.

It's my country. I'll vote like I own it. Besides, if things go well at least I will have a brilliant MP to flaunt in the face of non-Kawe residents. A girl's gotta get her kicks where she can :)

* Our Celebrident is a Tanzanian politician who belongs to CCM. I'm not saying he's dodgy (because I can't afford legal representation for libel and I do not feel like going to remand) but the corridors of power are narrow and smeared with ethical compromises. "Allegedly."

Tools on the Right, and a Party

Okay, I've put up links to the two social media online election monitoring sites on the right hand side of the blog at the top. Let's see if this social media test run can set us up for the big 2015. If any other good interactive election monitoring tools are up and running let me know and I'll put up the link.

And in other news, the Punch Hunger campaign team are having an event today. From the press release:

To make food a right and first priority in Tanzania, the FOOD right FIGHTERS from the international Activista network are inviting all Tanzanians to join the Punch Hunger campaign and call attention to this

very important message to the government:

Stop allocating land for biofuel production without a policy that ensures food security and that is implimented.

Venue/ Mahali: Tanzania Scouts Association

Time/ Muda: 2-6 pm/ 8-12pm

Major Events:

• Performances by artists like Hardmad, Malfred, Eriakim, Rage etc.
• Competitions in games, dance and music
• Exhibitions from different NGO’s
• The FOOD right FIGHTERS launch their new song “Punch Hunger” produced together with FIDQ

It's your country. Vote like you own it. Happy Furahi Day.

Elections 2010: Seen Around Stone Town

I noticed walking around Zanzibar that the posters were telling a story. In Bongo, you can't look anywhere without His Grinning Beauteousness plastered all over the city in various 'warm and thoughtful' poses. Every. Hundred. Meters. But in Zanzibar...

This gentleman noticed me taking pictures a month ago (I wasn't as stealthy as I had hoped). He made sure to insert himself in the frame to direct my attention to the candidate of his choice whom he referred to reverently as 'our chairman, our beloved leader.' Where do we get our political terms from, Maoist China? Honestly.

I saw these gentlemen last week and stealthed a picture using the old 'I'm just texting, don't mind me' trick. It is very weird to see the Forces of Peace, Security and Stability in such number in Zanzibar.

Especially when there are guns involved. World Heritage Site, anyone? Check out the condition of the various posters.

Five Days and Counting.

So. Looks like things are hotting up as we enter the last lap of the election derby. I admit I am behind the times: the last thing I remember watching with any interest was Tido Mhando (headman of Tanzania Broadcasting Corporation) having an earnest conversation with James Mbatia who was explaining why he didn't run for President. Mr. Mbatia was unconvincing and frankly, I will say it publicly: you should have run, sir.

I could talk about the flare-ups here and there, the rumours, the tensions, the crimes, the anticipated opposition auto-phaging. But elections are like a souffle: don't whip the batter too hard or the final product will not rise. And if you take it out too early, it'll collapse. Enough said.

The World's Best Housekeeper cornered me today. She was right, we do have some decisions to make about the candidates. I told her frankly: I don't know yet who I will vote for President, and I will throw the dice on the Councillor too. But I know who my Member of Parliament is going to be, and you can bet your ass that if you live in Kawe I'll tell you to vote for that candidate too. Chema chajiuza.

Now, to the serious business: we've got our citizen reporting work cut out for us, folks. I told you already that Vijana FM are running an election monitoring online tool based on the Ushahidi platform. Well, Hivos is also running one from Kenya with a little help from local partners.

To be clear: VijanaFM= local, Ushahidi platform, NOT sms enabled. Hivos project= based in Nairobi, Ushahidi platform, Sms enabled. They are doing an info-sharing collabo so you don't have to fret which one to embrace. Neither platform cares which language you report in as long as you report. Wait, I retract that: Kiswahili na Kiingereza tu kwa tovuti zote mbili tusije tukaanza kuripoti kwa kilugha tukashindwa kusikika.

Since it's voting week, some necessary statements: Please excuse the mixed languages, but this is a time for me to get FUBU, if you know what I mean. The Mikocheni Report declares its independence from party interference. I have accepted no gifts or bribes for content. I have accepted no commissions for election "communication" work. I do not belong to any party. I intend to give The Establishment a beady eye during the elections, and I intend to give the same beady eye to any shenanigan-instigating fools that I may witness in my vicinity. I promise to be receptive to accountability questions in the coming week. And I ask you, mwenyenchi mwenzangu: piga kura. Piga kura yako. Piga kura kwa uhuru.

It's your country. Vote like you own it.

"He's in the process of his coronation."

Happy Nyerere Day. This year's theme is leadership. Convenient. To digress a little, I think it is excellent that our elections are usually held after Nyerere Day. It provides a built-in opportunity to shine the light of comparison on our contemporary leaders, which I suspect annoys them no end. From an aspirational point of view, Mwalimu makes an excellent benchmark for any truly ambitious politician to compete with. One word: Legacy.

I seem to have lost my excitement about the coming elections. I am not sure why, but I know it'll be back on the 31st. In the meantime I am trying not to voodoo-curse the campaign trucks that meander around Mikocheni everyday polluting my soundspace. I used to hear kids playing on the street, now it's all vuvuzelas and invitations to last-minute rallies.

"He's in the process of his coronation" is the answer I got a couple of nights ago when I asked a friend about the progress of an upcoming politician whose first election campaign has, arguably, been the biggest debutante ball of the season. Pithy, funny, sadly true. The young prince in question is hardly the only candidate standing unopposed in these elections.

At present it seems that only CCM has the requisite number of warm bodies to cover our vast land with candy-dates wrapped in green and gold packaging. It doesn't matter how many helicopters, rallies or policy quips the opposition throws at people living in the rural areas, numbers are their Achilles heel. Except for Zanzibar, which exists in it's own political bubble and has no desire to explain itself to Mainlanders, Foreigners and Other Aliens. So sure, CCM has reason to feel complacent...but not entitled.

The second consequence is more entertaining if a little sinister. Our fledgeling competitive electoral democracy is riddled with one-horse races. A number of CCM candidates are languishing for want of a worthy adversary. And that's a damn shame. Aside from disappointed bloodlust - the competitive bit is what makes democracy interesting- I don't think this situation is necessarily healthy for the candidates or for the electorate. Someone running unopposed will likely suffer from an acute inflation of the ego. Case in point:

"I am very happy to go through unopposed...but this does not mean that opposition parties had no candidates for the seat...this demonstrates the respect that opposition parties have for me and my leadership that has allowed me to continue leading Simanjiro constituency"- Chrisopher Ole Sendeka (CCM-Simanjiro).

Ugh.

This no-opposition business has been a major factor in our Bigmanism disease: the over-worship of patriarchs in power and the excessively fawning submission that accompanies it. Hopefully 2015's electorate will have a more varied buffet of candidates to graze from, even in Simanjiro.

Speaking of legacy, Mwalimu would never turn down a presidential debate. Quite the opposite: he would relish the opportunity to crush his opposition with his nimble wit and oratory skills and then bury their tattered remains with gentle derision. My Lady of the Serene Smiles doesn't think we've had a 'real' president in power since he retired, basing a large part of this opinion on his fantastic extemporaneous speeches. I don't agree, but she does have a point about the power of a master communicator.

Tutti Frutti: around the web in 72 hours

Oh, what goodies the internet has brought! Here's what's been on my multi-tab browser these past two or three days. I need to post this so I can close the damn tabs and open new ones. All content found through your tweets, emails, IMs, FB updates and various soc-med. High Five.

Vijana FM said they would do it, so they did it: crowdmapping the General Elections 2010 through crowd-sourcing. Ushahidi is running under the bonnet, but we have to gas the thing. It's YOUR country. Vote like you OWN it.

For those who believe that autocracy in Africa equal economic growth and a steady supply of Kitenge and prosperity and safe, affordable public transport and all the other good stuff? William Easterly says you are wrong. :).

In the arts: Dar Sketches is about to put on a show. Don't miss, the prints are way worth it and if you love Bongo you will have a great time. Also: FaceBook is on the big screen in the Social Media movie. Yup. FB, the movie. Just... yeah, I know. Lastly, The First Grader. The casting is appalling, yes, and the tear-jerking is unfortunate. But the story, the story... there might be something there.

And a little modern feminism: the little college that would. :)

Politics and Media: The Party That Gagged Itself

The Establishment is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to political material to blog about. CCM has shown creativity in its campaign media strategy. However it recently earned itself the distinction of being the only party in Tanzania that is hostile to dialogue. That's right: a political party that is hostile to dialogue during the campaign season of a general election year. WWNT*?

A couple of weeks ago CCM forbade its candidates from participating in political debates. This blanket ban covers presidential, parliamentary and local government candidates and includes private and public media as well as political rallies. CCM has decided to do this during the 2010 elections that mark the dawn of both the media age and democratic competition in Tanzania. Stop laughing, I couldn't make up this kind of PR disaster if I was paid to do it.

There is no bigger gift that CCM could have given the opposition than their silence. These days, tune into the radio or any of the major TV stations and you are likely to trip over a political debate. The beauty of the exercise is that candidates are invited to these debates, deferring the costs of having to place ads and packaged messages to promote their manifestos. An opportunity that the opposition has embraced and CCM has chosen to ignore

A couple of nights ago, My Lady of the Sly Smiles called me to tune into ITV. Veteran journalist and agent provocateur Jenerali Ulimwengu was moderating a debate between youth candidates from the opposition at the Kilimanjaro Kempinski. Some of those candidates are very seriously impressive. One or two even displayed gravitas, a nice characteristic to have as a politician. The empty CCM spot stuck out like a missing tooth in a supermodel's smile. In protest, one older gentleman in the audience captured the mike and asked the GoP in absentia a rather irate question. Heh.

There is a saying that 'tis better to remain quiet and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt. Running for office must be the exception to the rule. Even in the public-image-driven US where a number of leaders have been superbly dense (Quayle, Bush II, Palin...), ways have been found to manage the situation. The same could be done, surely, at the presidential candidate level. For all his accessibility and genuine love of people, Celebrident Kikwete does NOT do spontaneous Q&A sessions with the press around. It is one of the wonderfully bizarre contradictions of President The Fourth's character, and his administration.

Through its gag-order, CCM is deliberately giving up on the most critical media, as Jiang Alipo points out:

"TV is even more intimate than the closed meetings they have which only die hard CCM members and leaders attend. A candidate explaining his/her policies on my TV screen is more intimate; it feels more like one is talking to me in my seating room. The good thing about TV debate is that we see the communication skills of the candidates, particularly those capable to debate issues and answer questions about important issues direct from the voters."

It may be that this decision is based on CCM's belief that it will win no matter what, that the opposition poses a negligible threat, and that voters are content to elect a party that does not respect their intellect. The implicit message is that CCM don't have to work for our vote, they just assume we'll give it to them. What a brave notion. Alternatively, the gag order is an act of sheer desperation. Maybe the Party believes that it will be used to mop the floor clean if it engages with the opposition and with voters in policy debates. If that's the case, I would have to encourage the Party to gird its loins. Better prove to be a fool in public than give off the pungent odor of political cowardice.

*WWNT= What Would Nyerere Think? Ruling parties are often prone to desperately bad PR decisions, but this one surely deserves a prize. The ghost of Mwalimu is probably crying at the sight of such political incompetence.

Not Like Sheikh Yahya

Our resident celebrity "master" of the predictive arts, Sheikh Yahya Hussein, has a habit of forseeing political performance long after the election results have been announced. He also likes to plays it safe by stating the obvious.

Why let him have all the fun? Since we have a month to go, this is a good time to read some tea leaves of my own:

1. Jakaya Kikwete is going to be re-elected as President. Tanzania always re-elects the incumbent. Besides, there is no viable candidate for the Union Presidency outside of the CCM yet. This won't be the case in 2015 and 2020 if our opposition keeps maturing (which is hardly guaranteed by the looks of it).

2. Jay Kay is going to win with maybe 60-65% of the vote. Of course CCM knows it can't reproduce it's ridiculous 80% win from 2005 even though it has plastered Jay Kay all over anything that sits still long enough. There is nothing like staring at an incumbent's feet of clay for five years straight to kill off any romance.

3. Which means that Dr. Slaa (Chadema) will come second with maybe 10-15% of the vote, and the other stragglers will split whatever is left over.

4. Maalim Seif (CUF) is the next President of Zanzibar, unless something dramatic happens between now and October 31st.

5. Opposition is going to increase its presence in parliament significantly- it may even work it's way up to 25-30% of the Bunge if voters wield that pen right.

6. These elections and the next five years will really test CCM's powers of cohesion. CCJ might have been an aborted exercise, but I predict that the first real splinter group is likely to appear before 2015.

7. Without a doubt there will be, um, 'discrepancies' in the poll numbers as they come in. But thanks to our friends in the IT industry and the nascent movement of independent citizen oversight and reporting, rigging this vote is going to be tougher than usual. This is good: some jobs are just too important to leave to a state organ like the National Electoral Commission. No chads will be left hanging...

Overall, October 31st is going to be about consolidating the inroads made by the opposition, considering policy and ideology along with political personalities, and opening up Tanzania's democratic spaces: local government, parliament, media- especially social media.

Speaking of social media, Uchaguzi2010 is working as an online aggregator of online election coverage. The blog lacks an 'about us' section, which I find problematic, but the content is all referenced. The best part is the GoogleDocs candidate list, which should become very interesting as of October 31st 6:00 pm onwards. The Revolution is being broadcast: tune in, think, connect, vote, report.

Elections 2010: Zenji

I did the usual survey of political opinions in Zenji while I was there the past week. From the man on the street, it sounds as though the predictions for the coming elections are positive. Taxi Driver Number One told me that Zanzibaris were only waiting for the elections to formalize the coalition government since Maalim Seif is the favorite candidate. Taxi Driver Number Two confirmed this, and the only CCM member I could corner said something along similar lines. Other things that I learned: Zanzibar is interested in renegotiating the terms of the Union in it's favor, consensus politics are preferable to oppositional politics, Eid ul Fitr gets celebrated for four days straight (!), the Zanzibari/Zanzibara distinction is alive and well.

The mood on the island was quite relaxed as far as I could tell, even though there were more campaign posters than there are Zanzibaris. Upon leaving, I got a bit of ribbing about not hanging around to see the vote... but much as I would love to watch Zanzibar ease in a genuine coalition government, elections is no time for a mainlander to be hanging around without a press pass.

Back in Dar, I got The Question from the two drivers I regularly work with and one electrician: what's going on in Zenji? In the discussions, seems like everyone is interested and invested in the outcome of this election, and the overall message is quite clear- party politics are all well and good, but this time around people are voting for individuals. Evidently, the High Court needs to get on the independent candidate wagon already...

Despot Needed, Please Enquire Inside.

So, the people have spoken via a non-scientific blog poll and they have said loud and clear that they aren't too strongly attached to their personal freedoms. 50% of respondents are in favor of a benevolent dictatorship, two people want in on Perfect Steak Quest, two of you don't care how things get done so long as they are done, and one person is actually in favor of democracy (and the sole winner of the Mikocheni Report Virtual Hug Prize).

Seriously? I guess it is a good thing we're not having a referendum about this democracy business.

Still, I think that this year's elections are already proving to be extraordinary because of the heightened focus on the primary stages, the parliamentary candidates and local government elections. We're expanding and improving our democracy even as we express our discontent with it. Typical.

Protest Vote?

First things first: I am looking for a comprehensive, well-written, credible book on contemporary Tanzanian history (post-independence and as deep into the 21st century as possible) that is preferably Not a biography, autobiography or family history. If you can point me in the direction of one I'll be grateful.

There were a couple of interesting political stories in the news today. First, our Minister for Community Development, Gender and Children has been arrested and questioned by the Prevention for Corruption Bureau on allegations of electoral corruption in the Umoja wa Wanawake (CCM women's wing) polls in Tabora. My favorite part?

"...the suspects were arrested on Tuesday at around 1:55am at a guest house known as Camise situated in Cheyo A area, 100 meters from the regional PCCB office. "

It is good to see CCM women excel in numerous areas of Tanzanian public life, including the all-important practice of corruption. I wonder what the Speaker of the House thinks? Anyways, proponents of the theory that women will make "better" leaders because of gender traits like non-violence, listening skills and the propensity to place communal welfare above individual ambitions.. stop laughing, I'm trying to make a point here... might want to study Umoja wa Wanawake Tanzania.

Dr. Wilbrod Slaa, who was asked by Chadema to run as its presidential candidate, has received heroic support from his constituency. I wish them luck. I was debating his chances of winning this morning with a civil society friend and realized that I am likely to vote conservatively in the presidential race. Much as I admire the good doctor, and suspect that he will be a fiercely focused policy-maker, what's the point? A non-CCM president would be hamstrung in the current environment where the GoP is indistinguishable from government. However my friend did suggest that if nothing else, voting for Dr. Slaa would do two important things: let the government know how many people think he's a better choice than the incumbent, and deprive the incumbent of that vote.

The first point is dubious: being a brilliant mind and a focused, committed opposition member doesn't translate to being an effective president since effectiveness requires the cooperation of your government. The second point, that of the protest vote, is reasonable though risky- look what happened in 1995 when we nearly voted in (or did vote in, depending on who you ask) one Augustine Mrema. I have yet to meet anyone who isn't relieved that things didn't pan out for him and for Tanzania...

The biggest disappointment with multi-party politics has been our lackadaisical approach to institution-building. This is hardly astrophysics: if just one party had started out in 1995 with a canny vision to be implemented over the course of a decade or two, maybe CCM would actually be facing a credible threat. Instead here we are today still under the unbroken thumb of the Establishment. Under these circumstances it is difficult to take the opposition seriously. We need independent candidates to challenge the status quo.

Le sigh. I suppose the fact that there might be an alternative presidential candidate worth considering is a tentative step along our road to competitive democracy...