Our resident celebrity "master" of the predictive arts, Sheikh Yahya Hussein, has a habit of forseeing political performance long after the election results have been announced. He also likes to plays it safe by stating the obvious.
Why let him have all the fun? Since we have a month to go, this is a good time to read some tea leaves of my own:
1. Jakaya Kikwete is going to be re-elected as President. Tanzania always re-elects the incumbent. Besides, there is no viable candidate for the Union Presidency outside of the CCM yet. This won't be the case in 2015 and 2020 if our opposition keeps maturing (which is hardly guaranteed by the looks of it).
2. Jay Kay is going to win with maybe 60-65% of the vote. Of course CCM knows it can't reproduce it's ridiculous 80% win from 2005 even though it has plastered Jay Kay all over anything that sits still long enough. There is nothing like staring at an incumbent's feet of clay for five years straight to kill off any romance.
3. Which means that Dr. Slaa (Chadema) will come second with maybe 10-15% of the vote, and the other stragglers will split whatever is left over.
4. Maalim Seif (CUF) is the next President of Zanzibar, unless something dramatic happens between now and October 31st.
5. Opposition is going to increase its presence in parliament significantly- it may even work it's way up to 25-30% of the Bunge if voters wield that pen right.
6. These elections and the next five years will really test CCM's powers of cohesion. CCJ might have been an aborted exercise, but I predict that the first real splinter group is likely to appear before 2015.
7. Without a doubt there will be, um, 'discrepancies' in the poll numbers as they come in. But thanks to our friends in the IT industry and the nascent movement of independent citizen oversight and reporting, rigging this vote is going to be tougher than usual. This is good: some jobs are just too important to leave to a state organ like the National Electoral Commission. No chads will be left hanging...
Overall, October 31st is going to be about consolidating the inroads made by the opposition, considering policy and ideology along with political personalities, and opening up Tanzania's democratic spaces: local government, parliament, media- especially social media.
Speaking of social media, Uchaguzi2010 is working as an online aggregator of online election coverage. The blog lacks an 'about us' section, which I find problematic, but the content is all referenced. The best part is the GoogleDocs candidate list, which should become very interesting as of October 31st 6:00 pm onwards. The Revolution is being broadcast: tune in, think, connect, vote, report.
Why let him have all the fun? Since we have a month to go, this is a good time to read some tea leaves of my own:
1. Jakaya Kikwete is going to be re-elected as President. Tanzania always re-elects the incumbent. Besides, there is no viable candidate for the Union Presidency outside of the CCM yet. This won't be the case in 2015 and 2020 if our opposition keeps maturing (which is hardly guaranteed by the looks of it).
2. Jay Kay is going to win with maybe 60-65% of the vote. Of course CCM knows it can't reproduce it's ridiculous 80% win from 2005 even though it has plastered Jay Kay all over anything that sits still long enough. There is nothing like staring at an incumbent's feet of clay for five years straight to kill off any romance.
3. Which means that Dr. Slaa (Chadema) will come second with maybe 10-15% of the vote, and the other stragglers will split whatever is left over.
4. Maalim Seif (CUF) is the next President of Zanzibar, unless something dramatic happens between now and October 31st.
5. Opposition is going to increase its presence in parliament significantly- it may even work it's way up to 25-30% of the Bunge if voters wield that pen right.
6. These elections and the next five years will really test CCM's powers of cohesion. CCJ might have been an aborted exercise, but I predict that the first real splinter group is likely to appear before 2015.
7. Without a doubt there will be, um, 'discrepancies' in the poll numbers as they come in. But thanks to our friends in the IT industry and the nascent movement of independent citizen oversight and reporting, rigging this vote is going to be tougher than usual. This is good: some jobs are just too important to leave to a state organ like the National Electoral Commission. No chads will be left hanging...
Overall, October 31st is going to be about consolidating the inroads made by the opposition, considering policy and ideology along with political personalities, and opening up Tanzania's democratic spaces: local government, parliament, media- especially social media.
Speaking of social media, Uchaguzi2010 is working as an online aggregator of online election coverage. The blog lacks an 'about us' section, which I find problematic, but the content is all referenced. The best part is the GoogleDocs candidate list, which should become very interesting as of October 31st 6:00 pm onwards. The Revolution is being broadcast: tune in, think, connect, vote, report.
