The Weekly Sneak: Play Well Together

Last Sunday's Citizen had a big front-page spread about the Zitto Kabwe- January Makamba affair. I thought it was wonderful that they have finally been outed as the collaborators that they so frequently are. In actual fact, it's not just the two of them- a number of politicians are guilty of skipping merrily across party lines when the need arises. But that's their business, and there are reasons why they only do this kind of thing behind closed doors. Interestingly enough, the article was very 'neutral' in its tone while managing to sound hopeful that this would all end very badly for all involved. :) Journalists, eh. Don't let the truth get in the way of drama...

So that's the topic for the coming week's East African column: collaboration. It's totally trending right now, and it gets us all away from the craziness of partisan politics. Because democracy doesn't have to be a brawl, every day, does it? Nah.

"Some commentators have raised the concern that this new class of politicians is too high-ended, well beyond the ken of the “average” Tanzanian. That their interests are those of the dreaded bourgeoisie, and as such this unholy alliance of ambitious young men will result in even more kleptocracy and neglect of the poor. A distinct danger, to be sure. However, thanks to our socialist past and humble beginnings, there hasn't been a generation of heirs until rather recently. Just about every one of our grand corrupters and super-kleptocrats has come from modest beginnings. Much as I hate to contradict my fellow armchair socialists, let's just admit that there is no more nobility in poverty than there is in riches- in leadership it all comes down to character."

Oh, I also took the opportunity to poke a little fun at Zitto and at January- the magic twins. Seems every time they cough there is a camera there to record the event for social media dissemination/frontpage news. I feel like I am constantly tripping over their PR. But I also know that all the incessant jostling for public visibility is a very smart part of their clear ambitions to one day hear someone call them "Mr. President." Probably not simultaneously, though... heh. And won't that fight be great to watch?

The NEC Meeting: A Fighting Chance Not The Chance To Fight.

Every so often I actually write a complimentary article about the government or the Grand Old Party and the February NEC Meeting provided such an occasion. I submitted a piece to The East African for a planned "special" on the event and... nothing. Nothing the week after than either. Oh well. So this is incredibly not fresh news, but since the piece is written I thought I might as well share it here:

"CCM has finally held its highly-anticipated National Executive Committee (NEC) Meeting this month. Although we are not all card-carrying members of the Grand Old Party, there is hardly a Tanzanian living today who does not have a stake in how it conducts itself. The big CCM meetings offer a glimpse into the general mood of the party, and the implications for politics in the country. Watching the flows of power across the various levels of the organization does provide a good insight into what the future might hold.

It has to be said that outside of the more colorful encounters between the state and reformers of all stripes, the Kikwete administration has been consistent in its pursuit of its own vision of a better governance system whether or not we agree with it. And while it has been struggling under the weight of kleptocracy, somehow CCM 2012 is a more open and democratic organization than CCM 2005. It seems that the internal shift of power from one generation to the next, and the shift in attitude that this entails, might be a relatively smooth one and it might even take the party back to its glory days when members felt true ownership.

“The way in which the ruling party has remained legitimately in power by pragmatically adapting to the demands of the time has allowed successive regimes to pursue relatively continuous development objectives throughout a transitional period.”

Generally speaking, the meeting outcomes that CCM announced give hope. Barring incumbent MPs from being members of NEC is an excellent move, especially in light of the overwhelming greed that CCM MPs have displayed. In principle, the less power resides in the hands of CCM MPs the better off we are as a society- at least with this particular intake. Also commendable is the Party's decision to amend its 1977 Constitution, hopefully to bring it into the 21^st Century. The decision to select NEC members from Districts is a good way to devolve power away from the center further down towards the grassroots, and arguably gives some measure of control of the party back to its natural constituents: its foot-soldiers and faithful voters.

Finally, the decision to create an advisory council of elders is also welcome. We have hit ten years without Mwalimu's wry wit to guide us, and his legacy has yet to be adapted for a contemporary votership. It has been hard of late to pinpoint where the intellectual and ideological centers of the Party reside. If the GoP has the benefit of the experience of leaders who have made it to retirement age, they should certainly use it. Continuity is important. Besides which, it creates an excellent counterbalance and resource for the incoming generation of leaders who are only just starting to earn their stripes.

CCM's ongoing challenge is to continue to manage the competing political groups that contest its autonomy, ranging from aid donors whose good governance agenda has specific political ramifications to competition from opposition parties, civil society's role as the poor's advocate and watchdog, the welfare and employment of the poor in urban and rural localities, the unquiet union with Zanzibar, the emergence or regional politics, and the effects of increasing inequality- though it must be said that the current administration has contributed significantly to the growth of the gap between kleptocrats and ordinary civilians.

“In order to succeed in growing its economy and redistributing the benefits of such growth, its greatest economic asset remains its overall political stability. So far there is every indication that the ruling party is cognizant of the importance of the continuity provided by the stable political system of which it has been the main architect”

It is worth repeating here that the current President has remained staunch in his avoidance of straight autocracy. With a Party chairman willing to exercise a bit of authority in order to retain as much of the spirit of 'public good' as he can manage, CCM has proved itself to be the chameleonic, learning organization that is smart enough to follow the winds of change. And as long as it is willing to flex and adapt to the times, however small the adjustments may be, then Tanzania retains a fighting chance, which is entirely different from the chance to fight. There is something to be said for that, and it is a lesson that I hope opposition parties are paying attention to."

It's a mix of old and new as I blended some predictive Poli-Sci writings from about six years ago with commentary on the current behaviors of the GoP. CCM has managed for 40 years to adapt in a pragmatic way to contemporary demands... and I see it doing that for a good long time to come. And yes, I do think that's a good thing. But I still refuse to get that party card :)

Weekly Sneak: Shopping for Politicians

That was my title for this week's article: Shopping for Politicians. The East African has a fetish for improving upon the titles I give to my articles, so I though I would pre-empt them this week because I know whatever comes out on Monday will be designed to titillate beyond any charms that the article itself possesses. Sigh.

Moving on. Having been told numerous times never to fall for a politician or a party, and having done so regardless...let's just say I got a little familiar with the idealist-horrified-cynic cycle of political faith. But giving us is for quitters, so rather than wallow, I have found a silvery lining for this particular cloud. Been kicking this idea around for a while that we need to get beyond the party method for organizing political movements. I don't know yet what this beyond will look like, but it will lack the all-or-nothing element that partisanship brings to democracy:

"This is a very real dilemma, the perpetual quest for a political party that is not likely to crush you with disappointment at its folly. Or, failing that, a politician who doesn't make you slightly ashamed to admit their acquaintance in public. Or failing even that, at least a group of people who don't make you want to tear your hair out and wear ashes at the thought of them reaching the top levels of public office. Politicians are such fickle creatures- idealistic and hardworking one moment, stealing public funds and abusing their powers the next. Even grouping them into parties doesn't seem to help much- if anything it is a liability, they do goad each other on so."

Like crabs in a barrel. To illustrate this point, I jumped off with the CUF situation. Naturally, I checked my Facebook account only to find an announcement from one of the CUF worthies that suggests that either the situation is about to escalate in Zanzibar, or it is effectively over for Mr. Hamad (CUF-Wawi) and his supporters. Love it or hate it, politics is never really boring is it?

Global, Local, Expert?

Sorry to be a bit boring, got development in mind lately. The movement to democratize the industry and let people self-determine is finally picking up steam in tangible ways. Rakesh Rajani's piece about the business of development provides a nice framework for the global-local relationship. So Ben Taylor's piece offering two possible approaches to Open Government in Tanzania is a nice follow up. What was it again? Oh yeah: think global act local. That must have been a few development paradigms ago. Plus ca change.

On the issue of global/local and 'expertise,' by stalking William Easterly on the Twitter I came across an article published in 2008 by Nathan Nunn and Leonard Wantchekon titled 'The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa.' Anyone who can claim to know the origins of mistrust in Africa is already taking a huge risk in my opinion. I find the article objectionable on any number of levels, but in the interest of saving time let me just ask you to contrast their approach to 'Africa' with this anthropologist's approach to studying a complex issue in an African setting. Social scientists, all three studying a culture not their own. The economists do come out of this looking like aliens trying to puzzle out human behavior. Sigh. Economists.

So, Chadema lost Igunga. Here's Omar's original piece on the importance of this election for Chadema, and a follow-up that dips into some past analysis. And a post-mortem from The Citizen that contains interesting opinions from 'the man on the ground'.

And in Other News: The Establishment is Up To Something. Aren't They Always?

Yes, I was prodded recently by someone about the abrupt and unexpected resignation of the CCM Central Committee and its recent reformation. I do, in fact, have an opinion or three about it but guess what? I am practicing my newly-mastered skill of restraint.

Okay, the truth is: I think it's too early for me to tell. Sometime ago I realized that the frenetic pace of constant reactions to breaking and current news stories doesn't allow for me to see the forest for the trees. In this case, I just don't have the foggiest clue what CCM is really, really up to. I'm not sure if they even have a nefarious plan in action. I'm not even certain which is the "They" to refer to in this case- the ones with their fingers in the control panel. Evidently something has happened. The dust hasn't settled yet.

I have some suspicions, and a few notions based on having observed some of the behaviors of certain folks. I'd venture that it's looking cautiosly optimistic from where I stand, although one has to be careful about being optimistic about The Establishment. I could do with a bit more research to think things through. So in the interest of keeping my foot out of my mouth (who likes the taste of mud) I think I'll just sit on this for a while and let it marinate. It's not like they are going anywhere, is it :)

The King's Diary: Political Conundrums.

Dear Me

For almost seven years I have tirelessly worked to deliver a better life to my subjects. But I seem to have failed. Problems I faced when I came to power such as electricity rationing, delays at the port, traffic congestion, a malfunctioning railroad, backward agriculture and an untrained and unskilled population remain unresolved. Other things are getting worse: food prices are skyrocketing, the Treasury is out of cash and one of the donors has walked out on us calling the Kingdom “an unreliable partner”. More may follow. Meanwhile TKP officials continue to line their pockets without delivering anything, the opposition is getting more vocal and citizens are getting restless. This is an explosive situation! As leader I need to find a solution and restore the TKPs legitimacy.

I came across an interesting book by Richard Hofstadter that seems to speak to our precarious situation. It discusses party history in the Great Imperialist Nation. Like us, the Great Nation struggled with its opposition, and like the TKP, the incumbent party was set to destroy the opposition by all means. They even succeeded, but when they did the remaining party fell into disarray. During the Era of Good Feeling (1816-1824) the party ruled virtually unchallenged and fell into several factions that failed to work together. Without external pressure toward solidarity, internal disintegration was unchecked.

How much this resembles our situation. The TKPs power is virtually unchallenged. Could it be that because there is no incentive to compromise and accommodate one another, TKP big wigs fall out in different factions and interest groups and fail to collaborate?

If correct then going after the opposition will not result in triumph but in chaos. Should we stop fighting the opposition and allow them space to compete? Should we allow them to demonstrate and to highlight TKP weaknesses? It could drive TKP members to greater solidarity. Should we allow them to win constituencies of non-performing MPs? It will certainly prune the TKP of its weak members and entice others to work harder. Hmmm.... interesting thought. Could it really help restore the TKP’s glory? I need to think this over.

14 March 2011

Point One Percent.

Had to post this on FaceBook last night when the results came out since Blogspot started acting funny precisely around the time that the Zanzibar Presidential Election results were being broadcast.

Now that the elections are over and I don't have to play my cards close to my chest, I'll just come out and say it: I am crushed that Maalim Seif did not win. It's nothing personal, like most folks I think that Shein is a gentleman of the old-school variety which is an excellent thing to be. But nonetheless, I'm crushed.

Also, I'm overwhelmed with a bitter-sweet joy at Hamad and Shein's handling of the situation. Zanzibar is a particularly machiavellan part of Tanzania, and we're plenty squirelly to begin with. This might be a sweetheart deal amongst Zanzibari politicians, who knows? But if it isn't, and Maalim gave that concession speech in order to preserve the lives of his countrymen and the peace, stability (and economic viability) of his beloved Zanzibar... well, in that case I must salute him with a deep and genuine respect. That's what it means to sacrifice for your country, all too often.

Heshima kwako, Maalim. Wanazenji, nawatakia heri na amani. Mnatufundisha.

Elections 2010: Seen Around Stone Town

I noticed walking around Zanzibar that the posters were telling a story. In Bongo, you can't look anywhere without His Grinning Beauteousness plastered all over the city in various 'warm and thoughtful' poses. Every. Hundred. Meters. But in Zanzibar...

This gentleman noticed me taking pictures a month ago (I wasn't as stealthy as I had hoped). He made sure to insert himself in the frame to direct my attention to the candidate of his choice whom he referred to reverently as 'our chairman, our beloved leader.' Where do we get our political terms from, Maoist China? Honestly.

I saw these gentlemen last week and stealthed a picture using the old 'I'm just texting, don't mind me' trick. It is very weird to see the Forces of Peace, Security and Stability in such number in Zanzibar.

Especially when there are guns involved. World Heritage Site, anyone? Check out the condition of the various posters.

Politics and Media: The Party That Gagged Itself

The Establishment is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to political material to blog about. CCM has shown creativity in its campaign media strategy. However it recently earned itself the distinction of being the only party in Tanzania that is hostile to dialogue. That's right: a political party that is hostile to dialogue during the campaign season of a general election year. WWNT*?

A couple of weeks ago CCM forbade its candidates from participating in political debates. This blanket ban covers presidential, parliamentary and local government candidates and includes private and public media as well as political rallies. CCM has decided to do this during the 2010 elections that mark the dawn of both the media age and democratic competition in Tanzania. Stop laughing, I couldn't make up this kind of PR disaster if I was paid to do it.

There is no bigger gift that CCM could have given the opposition than their silence. These days, tune into the radio or any of the major TV stations and you are likely to trip over a political debate. The beauty of the exercise is that candidates are invited to these debates, deferring the costs of having to place ads and packaged messages to promote their manifestos. An opportunity that the opposition has embraced and CCM has chosen to ignore

A couple of nights ago, My Lady of the Sly Smiles called me to tune into ITV. Veteran journalist and agent provocateur Jenerali Ulimwengu was moderating a debate between youth candidates from the opposition at the Kilimanjaro Kempinski. Some of those candidates are very seriously impressive. One or two even displayed gravitas, a nice characteristic to have as a politician. The empty CCM spot stuck out like a missing tooth in a supermodel's smile. In protest, one older gentleman in the audience captured the mike and asked the GoP in absentia a rather irate question. Heh.

There is a saying that 'tis better to remain quiet and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt. Running for office must be the exception to the rule. Even in the public-image-driven US where a number of leaders have been superbly dense (Quayle, Bush II, Palin...), ways have been found to manage the situation. The same could be done, surely, at the presidential candidate level. For all his accessibility and genuine love of people, Celebrident Kikwete does NOT do spontaneous Q&A sessions with the press around. It is one of the wonderfully bizarre contradictions of President The Fourth's character, and his administration.

Through its gag-order, CCM is deliberately giving up on the most critical media, as Jiang Alipo points out:

"TV is even more intimate than the closed meetings they have which only die hard CCM members and leaders attend. A candidate explaining his/her policies on my TV screen is more intimate; it feels more like one is talking to me in my seating room. The good thing about TV debate is that we see the communication skills of the candidates, particularly those capable to debate issues and answer questions about important issues direct from the voters."

It may be that this decision is based on CCM's belief that it will win no matter what, that the opposition poses a negligible threat, and that voters are content to elect a party that does not respect their intellect. The implicit message is that CCM don't have to work for our vote, they just assume we'll give it to them. What a brave notion. Alternatively, the gag order is an act of sheer desperation. Maybe the Party believes that it will be used to mop the floor clean if it engages with the opposition and with voters in policy debates. If that's the case, I would have to encourage the Party to gird its loins. Better prove to be a fool in public than give off the pungent odor of political cowardice.

*WWNT= What Would Nyerere Think? Ruling parties are often prone to desperately bad PR decisions, but this one surely deserves a prize. The ghost of Mwalimu is probably crying at the sight of such political incompetence.

Protest Vote?

First things first: I am looking for a comprehensive, well-written, credible book on contemporary Tanzanian history (post-independence and as deep into the 21st century as possible) that is preferably Not a biography, autobiography or family history. If you can point me in the direction of one I'll be grateful.

There were a couple of interesting political stories in the news today. First, our Minister for Community Development, Gender and Children has been arrested and questioned by the Prevention for Corruption Bureau on allegations of electoral corruption in the Umoja wa Wanawake (CCM women's wing) polls in Tabora. My favorite part?

"...the suspects were arrested on Tuesday at around 1:55am at a guest house known as Camise situated in Cheyo A area, 100 meters from the regional PCCB office. "

It is good to see CCM women excel in numerous areas of Tanzanian public life, including the all-important practice of corruption. I wonder what the Speaker of the House thinks? Anyways, proponents of the theory that women will make "better" leaders because of gender traits like non-violence, listening skills and the propensity to place communal welfare above individual ambitions.. stop laughing, I'm trying to make a point here... might want to study Umoja wa Wanawake Tanzania.

Dr. Wilbrod Slaa, who was asked by Chadema to run as its presidential candidate, has received heroic support from his constituency. I wish them luck. I was debating his chances of winning this morning with a civil society friend and realized that I am likely to vote conservatively in the presidential race. Much as I admire the good doctor, and suspect that he will be a fiercely focused policy-maker, what's the point? A non-CCM president would be hamstrung in the current environment where the GoP is indistinguishable from government. However my friend did suggest that if nothing else, voting for Dr. Slaa would do two important things: let the government know how many people think he's a better choice than the incumbent, and deprive the incumbent of that vote.

The first point is dubious: being a brilliant mind and a focused, committed opposition member doesn't translate to being an effective president since effectiveness requires the cooperation of your government. The second point, that of the protest vote, is reasonable though risky- look what happened in 1995 when we nearly voted in (or did vote in, depending on who you ask) one Augustine Mrema. I have yet to meet anyone who isn't relieved that things didn't pan out for him and for Tanzania...

The biggest disappointment with multi-party politics has been our lackadaisical approach to institution-building. This is hardly astrophysics: if just one party had started out in 1995 with a canny vision to be implemented over the course of a decade or two, maybe CCM would actually be facing a credible threat. Instead here we are today still under the unbroken thumb of the Establishment. Under these circumstances it is difficult to take the opposition seriously. We need independent candidates to challenge the status quo.

Le sigh. I suppose the fact that there might be an alternative presidential candidate worth considering is a tentative step along our road to competitive democracy...

Independent candidates again, and a free earworm.

I have been finding the political news a bit snoozy these past few weeks, just can't bring myself to care much about Mpendazoe's defection to CCJ. Can't bring myself to take CCJ seriously, for that matter. The closer we get to elections, the more confused and impotent the opposition becomes- an amazing feat of sprinting towards the bottom before the race has even begun.

This week, however, has been pleasant: first we got a minor update on the impenetrable Zanzibar situation. I don't know how Zanzibar manages to be so byzantine, but they are going to put together a Government of National Unity soon without any of us political outsiders ever getting the real story. While I wish them the best, I am itching with curiosity about the whole thing: what does it mean for CCM? Who will be the next President? What did Karume and Hamad say to each other behind closed doors? The last time two Tanzanian leaders (one of them a Karume) whispered and shook hands in secret we ended up in a Union, referendum be damned. So yeah, I am a little intrigued.

Another issue close to my heart got an airing: the question of independent candidates. We all know that it is The Establishment's Banana Republic behavior that is holding everything up, but I have faith in Chief Justice Ramadhani and his crew and I don't expect them to drop the ball on this one.

Speaking about the health of our democracy, apparently the idea of following Em Pees around and asking them intrusive questions is not a bad one. Pity these kindsa studies are so costly. As Abba said: Aaaaaah, aaaaaaah! All the things I could do! If I had a little money!... (enjoy the earworm).