The Weekly Sneak: Play Well Together

Last Sunday's Citizen had a big front-page spread about the Zitto Kabwe- January Makamba affair. I thought it was wonderful that they have finally been outed as the collaborators that they so frequently are. In actual fact, it's not just the two of them- a number of politicians are guilty of skipping merrily across party lines when the need arises. But that's their business, and there are reasons why they only do this kind of thing behind closed doors. Interestingly enough, the article was very 'neutral' in its tone while managing to sound hopeful that this would all end very badly for all involved. :) Journalists, eh. Don't let the truth get in the way of drama...

So that's the topic for the coming week's East African column: collaboration. It's totally trending right now, and it gets us all away from the craziness of partisan politics. Because democracy doesn't have to be a brawl, every day, does it? Nah.

"Some commentators have raised the concern that this new class of politicians is too high-ended, well beyond the ken of the “average” Tanzanian. That their interests are those of the dreaded bourgeoisie, and as such this unholy alliance of ambitious young men will result in even more kleptocracy and neglect of the poor. A distinct danger, to be sure. However, thanks to our socialist past and humble beginnings, there hasn't been a generation of heirs until rather recently. Just about every one of our grand corrupters and super-kleptocrats has come from modest beginnings. Much as I hate to contradict my fellow armchair socialists, let's just admit that there is no more nobility in poverty than there is in riches- in leadership it all comes down to character."

Oh, I also took the opportunity to poke a little fun at Zitto and at January- the magic twins. Seems every time they cough there is a camera there to record the event for social media dissemination/frontpage news. I feel like I am constantly tripping over their PR. But I also know that all the incessant jostling for public visibility is a very smart part of their clear ambitions to one day hear someone call them "Mr. President." Probably not simultaneously, though... heh. And won't that fight be great to watch?

Global, Local, Expert?

Sorry to be a bit boring, got development in mind lately. The movement to democratize the industry and let people self-determine is finally picking up steam in tangible ways. Rakesh Rajani's piece about the business of development provides a nice framework for the global-local relationship. So Ben Taylor's piece offering two possible approaches to Open Government in Tanzania is a nice follow up. What was it again? Oh yeah: think global act local. That must have been a few development paradigms ago. Plus ca change.

On the issue of global/local and 'expertise,' by stalking William Easterly on the Twitter I came across an article published in 2008 by Nathan Nunn and Leonard Wantchekon titled 'The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa.' Anyone who can claim to know the origins of mistrust in Africa is already taking a huge risk in my opinion. I find the article objectionable on any number of levels, but in the interest of saving time let me just ask you to contrast their approach to 'Africa' with this anthropologist's approach to studying a complex issue in an African setting. Social scientists, all three studying a culture not their own. The economists do come out of this looking like aliens trying to puzzle out human behavior. Sigh. Economists.

So, Chadema lost Igunga. Here's Omar's original piece on the importance of this election for Chadema, and a follow-up that dips into some past analysis. And a post-mortem from The Citizen that contains interesting opinions from 'the man on the ground'.

Still Perfecting Regime Change Half a Century into Post-Colonialism

Watching what's going on in Libya, with Muammar Qaddafi slaughtering his own citizens, and the aftermaths of elections in Uganda and Cote d'Ivoire amongst other places, it is hard to believe that so many Africans are having to fight for their liberty... again. The irony is that the worst offenders on the continent seem to be former "liberators" of their countries. Kagame, Uncle Bob, Qaddafi, Museveni. Even in countries where elections are held, it seems that handing over power is a difficult thing to do.

What does this mean for Tanzania? I tend to look to South Africa rather than our neighboring countries* in order to try and imagine a potential political trajectory. Although the question has been kicked around here and there, I really can't imagine the North African/Middle East revolts reproducing themselves here. We're too differently organized, and there isn't a Grand Unified Cause yet to bring Tanzanians together across the country in solidarity to overturn a system as deeply entrenched as the CCM political structure. Besides, our Presidents don't make particularly good targets seeing as they respect their term limits, which means the goalposts are moving every ten years or so. Which means you have to target the whole party. Which is damn hard to do.

South Africa (specifically the ANC) has made some interesting choices in it's recent political life. The post-Madiba Presidents have come with incredible liabilities attached: Mbeki mishandled the HIV/AIDS issue with surprising incompetence, and then there's Jacob Zuma who has, with the help of his protege Malema, made a joke of the Party. Corruption, failure to deliver services as promised to the poor majority, a visible income gap growing between the BEE class and regular folks who have no access to kickbacks. Sound just like home :) Since the ANC, like CCM, is not the personal fiefdom of one crazed old freedom fighter but is rather made up of several groupings of ambitious power-brokers, no one is going to get a chance at leading the country until The Establishment is well and truly ready to give in.

We've proved by the ballot that we are quite comfortable continuing with a CCM government, no matter what the more vigorous malcontents might say in the press. I guess most of us are quite pragmatic that way: better the devil you know. Judging by the way our opposition is behaving on the mainland- Zanzibar is exempted as a GNU- we're obviously not ready for a party change here. And if you think we are, I ask you to consider this: if the formal opposition in Parliament has been unapologetically hogged by one opposition party with no remorse for alienating its natural allies, what will they get up to when they have access to all the public monies and the power that comes with government?

I don't doubt that there will come a day when even the idea of a CCM government will be untenable, and a viable alternative will present itself. It's even possible that we'll change parties without any loss of life or property in this idyllic future. In the meantime, there's a lot of groundwork to be done by the citizenry, and not the political class, to foster an environment where Tanzanians feel personally invested in and capable of contributing to the country. I believe the term is active citizenship? I live in hope.

BTW, despots are usually easy to spot: they tend to cultivate colorful, bizarre habits. Qaddafi's Jheri Curl hair products have obviously pickled his brain due to long use. Never, ever, ever tolerate a leader who looks like an escapee from the Koffi Olomide School of Manly Beauty. Or one with a fly whisk/animal print hat/ white handkerchief/vegetarian with a predilection for twins/dandy tendencies/fondness for the White Hunter look...

*I think we have a few more political similarities with SA than we do with our fellow EAC countries, actually. Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda apparently don't really do peaceful regime change, and Kenya seems to be looking for it's internal coherence with both hands and a flashlight. While I wish them the best and reluctantly agree that the EAC might have some economic utility, as a Tanzanian I want no part of the political federation scheduled for 2013...

Show Me Your Ass...ets.

I have to post another missive from His Handsome Highness in a minute, so I better lay the last poll to rest. The numbers: 13 of you voted, making this a tie for the most participated-in poll on TMR to date. Of you 13 who voted:

- Four of you are in favor of the walk-out culture. Smells like, smells like... smells like Chadema to me, to me.

- Three of you are in favor of a tax refund. Hell yeah. New rule: MPs who walk out of Bunge sessions due to temper tantrums should forfeit their salary for that month. Said salary should be redirected towards school feeding programs in the primary school of their constituency of birth.

- Two of you think that Bunge sucks (it does, on occasion) and feel neither anger nor evil satisfaction at Chadema's antics. So equanimous... what are you, Buddhist monks?

- And four of you would like to know about developments in the Steak Quest. Well, have I got a little news for you: apparently, The Waterfront at the SlipperyWay serves a hunk of fillet cooked to the right temperature for a reasonable price. Which means- eat it before the Chef migrates to greener pastures because you know how restaurants always (always) deteriorate here. The Black Tomato also treats it's steaklet right, but that's a morning sop-up-the-hangover special so it's on the thinner side... which doesn't matter since you get eggs with it for that coronary-on-a-plate feeling. Best steak in town? Yeah, I know where to source that. Saving it for the next big TMR give-away though, so don't ask.

The Party That Cried Wolf, and Another Poll

Now, we're talking. Bunge has kicked of apace this morning, seems that the formal opposition camp is having a little trouble composing itself. In the previous session (the 9th Bunge) Hamad Rashid Mohamed (CUF- Wawi) was the head of the opposition and the shadow cabinet was composed of a good mix of CUF and CCM and Others- reflecting the collaborative atmosphere of the time.

Today, Freeman Mbowe (Chadema- Hai) is the head honcho and as such may form a Shadow Cabinet in Parliament as a formal institution so long as the opposition hold no less that 12.5% (Kanuni ya tano, sehemu ya pili)* of the seats in parliament. Result: Chadema have not only stated that they have a difference of opinion with their old cronies CUF**, they do not want to share any of their toys now that they are the majority opposition party in Parliament. In fact, they had quite the slapfest with the Speaker and other CCM parliamentarians and it took me over an hour to realize that they were pulling each other's hair out over...definitions.

... I was kind of hoping something like this would happen :) I think it's a fascinating time in our democratic development, when opposition has realized that being united against a common foe isn't quite enough glue to stick them together. And now we'll separate the girls from the women...

Much more satisfying, of course, is watching the various strategies in play. As a guest of Parliament apparently inquired after the morning session (anecdotal) "Is it normal for opposition parties to commit political suicide in public in Tanzania?" Nah. Only one particular party has made that it's modus operandi. More importantly- is it actually political suicide? For every person who finds Chadema's antics fatiguing to the extreme, there is someone ready to defend what they see as a vigorous assault on The Establishment's repressive ways.

I like a little blood on the floor in Bunge*** but I have to admit that I am in the former camp. There's only so many times you can walk out of parliament (Miz Mdee...)**** before I start to wonder if I voted you in so that I can watch your backside heading towards the exit door. And such feelings lead to voter regret, which leads to flirting with other parties and then who knows what can happen then? But that's just me- what y'all think? Poll on the right, you know the drill.

* Parliamentary Canon Number five, section two.

** Things got complicated when CUF formed a GNU with CCM in Zanzibar, thereby becoming part of the dreaded Establishment... according to some folks.

*** Soccer? Pah. Give me politics any day.

**** I understand the whole loyalty/discipline thing but... As a Kawe resident, I got other issues. I would so much rather my MP used that sharp mind for something entirely more productive than supporting the crazed elements in her party.

Yes!

When we lost Amina Chifupa, the young female voice in parliament was dealt a severe blow. I wasn't sure that we would recover. I thought we'd be stuck in silence in that ghetto called Viti Maalum. Especially since Jay Kay was ill-advisedly suggesting even more special seats for women as a way to increase our political clout!

But I did notice that Amina hadn't been entirely alone: there was a quiet young woman in nerd chic glasses sitting somewhere behind Rashid Hamad Mohamed (CUF-Wawi). He tends to push up the bar and many parliamentarians sound remedial if they speak within half an hour of a contribution by the leader of the opposition. This first-time Special Seats MP did not suffer that problem as she earnestly clutched her written speeches with trembling fingers and powered through her stage fright.

I have yet to see her screaming like Anna Kilango Malecela of the overwhelmingly dramatic soliloquies. I'm conservative like that, I like my leaders to handle themselves when they are in their formal role.

I was very, very happy when she announced her Kawe candidacy (Christmas came early this year). Although it was a risk to endorse her on the blog* she came through like a champion. And now I get to have Halima Mdee as my very own shiny, brand-spanking newly elected, self-made-woman, kick-ass MP. I know it is a bad idea to fall for a politician, but The Gut tells me that this one might just be the one of the good eggs in the tray.

*The last time I totally bought into a young politician, he pitched a wobbly in his mid-term and I haven't been able to figure out his behavior since. Once bitten, twice shy.

Politics and Media: The Party That Gagged Itself

The Establishment is an embarrassment of riches when it comes to political material to blog about. CCM has shown creativity in its campaign media strategy. However it recently earned itself the distinction of being the only party in Tanzania that is hostile to dialogue. That's right: a political party that is hostile to dialogue during the campaign season of a general election year. WWNT*?

A couple of weeks ago CCM forbade its candidates from participating in political debates. This blanket ban covers presidential, parliamentary and local government candidates and includes private and public media as well as political rallies. CCM has decided to do this during the 2010 elections that mark the dawn of both the media age and democratic competition in Tanzania. Stop laughing, I couldn't make up this kind of PR disaster if I was paid to do it.

There is no bigger gift that CCM could have given the opposition than their silence. These days, tune into the radio or any of the major TV stations and you are likely to trip over a political debate. The beauty of the exercise is that candidates are invited to these debates, deferring the costs of having to place ads and packaged messages to promote their manifestos. An opportunity that the opposition has embraced and CCM has chosen to ignore

A couple of nights ago, My Lady of the Sly Smiles called me to tune into ITV. Veteran journalist and agent provocateur Jenerali Ulimwengu was moderating a debate between youth candidates from the opposition at the Kilimanjaro Kempinski. Some of those candidates are very seriously impressive. One or two even displayed gravitas, a nice characteristic to have as a politician. The empty CCM spot stuck out like a missing tooth in a supermodel's smile. In protest, one older gentleman in the audience captured the mike and asked the GoP in absentia a rather irate question. Heh.

There is a saying that 'tis better to remain quiet and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt. Running for office must be the exception to the rule. Even in the public-image-driven US where a number of leaders have been superbly dense (Quayle, Bush II, Palin...), ways have been found to manage the situation. The same could be done, surely, at the presidential candidate level. For all his accessibility and genuine love of people, Celebrident Kikwete does NOT do spontaneous Q&A sessions with the press around. It is one of the wonderfully bizarre contradictions of President The Fourth's character, and his administration.

Through its gag-order, CCM is deliberately giving up on the most critical media, as Jiang Alipo points out:

"TV is even more intimate than the closed meetings they have which only die hard CCM members and leaders attend. A candidate explaining his/her policies on my TV screen is more intimate; it feels more like one is talking to me in my seating room. The good thing about TV debate is that we see the communication skills of the candidates, particularly those capable to debate issues and answer questions about important issues direct from the voters."

It may be that this decision is based on CCM's belief that it will win no matter what, that the opposition poses a negligible threat, and that voters are content to elect a party that does not respect their intellect. The implicit message is that CCM don't have to work for our vote, they just assume we'll give it to them. What a brave notion. Alternatively, the gag order is an act of sheer desperation. Maybe the Party believes that it will be used to mop the floor clean if it engages with the opposition and with voters in policy debates. If that's the case, I would have to encourage the Party to gird its loins. Better prove to be a fool in public than give off the pungent odor of political cowardice.

*WWNT= What Would Nyerere Think? Ruling parties are often prone to desperately bad PR decisions, but this one surely deserves a prize. The ghost of Mwalimu is probably crying at the sight of such political incompetence.

Protest Vote?

First things first: I am looking for a comprehensive, well-written, credible book on contemporary Tanzanian history (post-independence and as deep into the 21st century as possible) that is preferably Not a biography, autobiography or family history. If you can point me in the direction of one I'll be grateful.

There were a couple of interesting political stories in the news today. First, our Minister for Community Development, Gender and Children has been arrested and questioned by the Prevention for Corruption Bureau on allegations of electoral corruption in the Umoja wa Wanawake (CCM women's wing) polls in Tabora. My favorite part?

"...the suspects were arrested on Tuesday at around 1:55am at a guest house known as Camise situated in Cheyo A area, 100 meters from the regional PCCB office. "

It is good to see CCM women excel in numerous areas of Tanzanian public life, including the all-important practice of corruption. I wonder what the Speaker of the House thinks? Anyways, proponents of the theory that women will make "better" leaders because of gender traits like non-violence, listening skills and the propensity to place communal welfare above individual ambitions.. stop laughing, I'm trying to make a point here... might want to study Umoja wa Wanawake Tanzania.

Dr. Wilbrod Slaa, who was asked by Chadema to run as its presidential candidate, has received heroic support from his constituency. I wish them luck. I was debating his chances of winning this morning with a civil society friend and realized that I am likely to vote conservatively in the presidential race. Much as I admire the good doctor, and suspect that he will be a fiercely focused policy-maker, what's the point? A non-CCM president would be hamstrung in the current environment where the GoP is indistinguishable from government. However my friend did suggest that if nothing else, voting for Dr. Slaa would do two important things: let the government know how many people think he's a better choice than the incumbent, and deprive the incumbent of that vote.

The first point is dubious: being a brilliant mind and a focused, committed opposition member doesn't translate to being an effective president since effectiveness requires the cooperation of your government. The second point, that of the protest vote, is reasonable though risky- look what happened in 1995 when we nearly voted in (or did vote in, depending on who you ask) one Augustine Mrema. I have yet to meet anyone who isn't relieved that things didn't pan out for him and for Tanzania...

The biggest disappointment with multi-party politics has been our lackadaisical approach to institution-building. This is hardly astrophysics: if just one party had started out in 1995 with a canny vision to be implemented over the course of a decade or two, maybe CCM would actually be facing a credible threat. Instead here we are today still under the unbroken thumb of the Establishment. Under these circumstances it is difficult to take the opposition seriously. We need independent candidates to challenge the status quo.

Le sigh. I suppose the fact that there might be an alternative presidential candidate worth considering is a tentative step along our road to competitive democracy...

A Fine Romance Part The Third: The Legacy Years

The campaigns are kicking off, so I had better hurry and finish this three-part musing on Jay Kay before we head into griping about vote-rigging, campaign funding and hamstrung election monitors.

In the last musing I concluded that:

Jay Kay is a pretty good fit for this moment in our political journey: a free-marketeer with a redistributive philosophy, a technophilic democrat, a canny executive and a patient, dedicated, opportunistic man of ambition who lacks the predatory instincts that make the Putins of this world so frightening. While I don't doubt that there are smarter, tougher, cannier men out there who would make 'better leaders,' all in all Jay Kay is at worst inoffensive and at best very useful, which is not a bad range within which to work with for a young African democracy."

I think I still stand behind that statement... the trouble with writing about Jay Kay is that he presents an exercise in indecision. While he remains a 'man of the people' this has taken on a distinctly celebrity-obsessed sheen in the past couple of years. This is supported by his careful selection of public speaking opportunities: no independent journalist interviews, no hot seat, no on-the-spot question sessions except out in the rural areas where folks are too cowed to say anything except 'Thank you Mr. President.' There is a canny indirectness to his accessibility which I find quite pleasantly Machiavellan.

What I really want to talk about is his second term, and his legacy. There can be no doubt that Jakaya Kikwete's first term in office has seen an impressive and peaceable change in our political culture. Having seized the media by their short and curlies, he has set a dire trend for politicians both nationally and regionally. Thanks to him, demonstrated charisma has become an important political asset as have camera-friendly looks.

This same exploding media scene has also seen incredible advances in political coverage- most of it driven by the obsession with grand corruption. Of course Tanzania's media isn't 100% free- TIA. But it is a lot more active than it used to be under Benjamin Mkapa. The irony: Mr. Mkapa was a journalist. Go figure. It took a genuine democrat like Jay Kay to open up that dialogue, even as he avoids dialoguing...

And yet there is still a sort of malaise, born of the sensation that at best this administration has a mixed record of achievement and is dragging its feet. As a friend said once: you can have potential for so long, but if you don't fulfill it you are a failure. I'm paraphrasing. Judging by Jay Kay's continued popularity we are still expecting much from his presidency, and from him.

So what could be better than a second term? Even with the continued growth of our opposition parties, there is no viable alternative to the URT presidency outside of the CCM candidate. Jay Kay is home free with another five years in which to get down to serious business, i.e. the building of a legacy. I wonder what he's going to pick to fill that expectation vacuum.

Legacies tend to be brutally circumspect, and they rarely have to do with the tangibles- no one really remembers who built what dam or dreamed up what 25-year plan. Because, well, who cares? The popular legacy of a Tanzanian President can be identified pretty easily through his nickname. Check it out: Father of the Nation. Followed by Mzee Ruksa. Followed by Mzee Ukapa. Followed by... Handsome Boy?

So as he goes into his second term- with a slogan that promises...more of the same- I am hoping that Jay Kay will show us his serious side and leave the celebrident lifestyle behind him. Judging by some of what this administration has already laid down- the embracing of the market economy, media, (sort of) agriculture and (sort of) education- there is plenty of scope for our incumbent to lock down a President-sized "solid policy initiative" for the ages. Psst: Jay Kay- the trick is to pick something that makes you look good for, like, ever. Might be University of Dodoma. Probably ain't. Let's see shall we?

Report Pres Jakaya Kikwete for Spam :)

No, I didn't. But it was one tempting click away...

My Lady of the Concerned Smiles dropped by with a bag of hyper-tasty oranges from one of her friend's farms, plus news that Halima Mdee (Chadema) is going to run for the Kawe parliamentary seat.

Cough. cough. Huuuuurghgghgh! ptuh. Excuse me. All good, thanks for asking. The pneumonianthraxallergy is being contained. Where was I?

Oh yeah, so we spent a wonderful hour or so fantasizing about how we are going to vote this bright young woman in and she was going to slay all the female oppressing legislation single-handedly. Very exciting dream. I can't confirm this because at the moment I am living under a rock like a grumpy scorpion, and I can't find the damn article online. Just take my word for it with a hefty pinch of salt and I'll get back to you about The Kawe MP Question.

But while I was swirling around the intertubes looking for a link, I checked my email only to see that... Sweet matoke, the Kikwete Kampaign has found The Twitter? This is an interesting development. The kind in which a long and erudite essay lurks about eMedia, politics, cult of personality, emergent economies, democracy, electoral strategies and the role of 'me also!' in The New Tanzania. Do yourself a favor and check out Kikwete2010 on The Twitter so you can observe The Establishment's spin dexterity first hand.

Also, I found a new friend: love the way this guy's mind works.